Its funny that people will bid 1500.00 on

a unit full of trash but are too cheap to spend 20 bucks on a lottery ticket. People at the auction were saying thats a waste of money to buy lottery tickets! I said its a waste to bid 1500.00 on a junk unit. 

Laugh - I look at storage auctions as my form of gambling.  Don't hit the casino very often (unlike my mother).  Saying that - I pulled that $20 out of my auction wallet and bought some tickets.  Suspect I'll not have 1 dang number on 20 tickets but had to try.  Would be fun to win and then play the local "Berry" and toss out all that good stuff just to keep the 1 "unique" item.

Lottery tickets are a tax on______ (fill in the blank)

Lottery tickets ( we pick one up every now and then)

We pay our stupid tax...  

Hey Craig just noticed your post # 888 sounds like good #'s to me. 

Ya - I got 2 numbers instead of just 1.  Just bought a $5 scratch off today to see if have any better luck.  Better and 100X cheaper then buying the storage units today.

i played two weeks ago.Got 4 out of 6 numbers.It was thirty dollars.You would think it would be more than that.

i played two weeks ago.Got 4 out of 6 numbers.It was thirty dollars.You would think it would be more than that.

minus the 30 other tickets you bought, so you broke even right? I never play the lottery. Never. Did I say never? But, when the Mega ball hit 640 Million, even I had to buy a few.  Glad they let me remain anonymous...LOL

 

As a long-time poker player, I decided a few years back to apply some gambling math theory to the world of the lottery.

What I discovered was that when the jackpot gets big enough, the odds actually justify playing.

I don't recall the exact numbers, but for sake of argument:

If the odds of matching all the numbers are 1 in 230 million
AND
The top prize is greater than $230 million
AND
The ticket price is $1
THEN
The odds favor playing.

This is actually a favorable situation because it does not consider the secondary prizes for matching some of the numbers.

There is one thing that blows a hole into my entire analysis... TAXES!!!

Once you consider the tax liability associated with a large win, the odds are skewed in a truly adverse manner.

My conclusion was ultimately that it is still not worth playing, but not nearly as stupid as most people make it out to be.

Food for thought.

I remember a time when one of the states I lived in had a lottery with odds of winning the jackpot at something just over 17 million to 1. So theoritically if you had the equipment, manpower, line of credit. Everytime the jackpot went higher then 17 million dollars, a person or group of persons, could play every number combination and win the lottery plus make money. As long as nobody else playing picked the winning numbers too. I have no idea what kind of logistics operation it would take to pick every combination (17 million?) and purchase them within a week. Theoretically it should work though. 

Cobia-

You are spot on in that theory. And it would be absolutely worth it until you factor in the tax element. And you hit it on the head about splitting the top prize. If you had to share it, that would kill you!

As for logistics and financing, I always believe that if the math and everything else makes sense, you will find the money.

Also consider that retailers who sell the tickets get paid based on any winnings that come from their machines. If you were buying every number combo, you could easily find a retailer who would help you process the ticket buying. You would just have to make sure you don't partner with an idiot who screws the whole thing up somehow. 

The odds of winning never change as there is a finite combination of numbers that can win. What does change is the odds of having to share those winnings with someone else.

As a long-time poker player, I decided a few years back to apply some gambling math theory to the world of the lottery.

What I discovered was that when the jackpot gets big enough, the odds actually justify playing.

I don't recall the exact numbers, but for sake of argument:

If the odds of matching all the numbers are 1 in 230 million
AND
The top prize is greater than $230 million
AND
The ticket price is $1
THEN
The odds favor playing.

This is actually a favorable situation because it does not consider the secondary prizes for matching some of the numbers.

There is one thing that blows a hole into my entire analysis... TAXES!!!

Once you consider the tax liability associated with a large win, the odds are skewed in a truly adverse manner.

My conclusion was ultimately that it is still not worth playing, but not nearly as stupid as most people make it out to be.

Food for thought.

It does not matter if it is 1 million  460 million your odds are still 230 million to 1. 

It does not matter if it is 1 million  460 million your odds are still 230 million to 1.

I understand that the odds of matching all the numbers does not change, but the favorability of those odds is varied depending on the prize amount.

If the prize is $460 million to a 230 million to 1 shot, then the odds are 2:1 in your favor.

Best example I can give is a coin flip. If someone said "I'll give you $10 if it's heads and you give me $5 if it's tails," you have to take that bet. What you really want to do is get as many flips as possible with those terms. On 1 million flips, you will walk away with $2.5 million dollars, give or take the standard deviation.

It's the same reasonable expectation whether it's 460 million:230 million or 2:1.

When the GA lottery first came out we did all sorts of stats, odds, when play, etc. in statistics class.  Was interesting to come up with various scenarios and theories.  I'll keep gambling on units.  Least I get something for the $200, even if it's trash and a few dead rats

I understand that the odds of matching all the numbers does not change, but the favorability of those odds is varied depending on the prize amount.

If the prize is $460 million to a 230 million to 1 shot, then the odds are 2:1 in your favor.

Best example I can give is a coin flip. If someone said "I'll give you $10 if it's heads and you give me $5 if it's tails," you have to take that bet. What you really want to do is get as many flips as possible with those terms. On 1 million flips, you will walk away with $2.5 million dollars, give or take the standard deviation.

It's the same reasonable expectation whether it's 460 million:230 million or 2:1.

If Spend $1  it is $460 million to one for my money my odds of winning are still 230 to 1.